如果美国不参战，二战将花落谁家？
Let’s speculate on what might have happened if the USA did not join WW2 when it did.Above: Spitfire factory. “From July to September , the Luftwaffe's loss records indicate the loss of 1,636 aircraft, 1,184 to enemy action. This represented 47% of the initial strength of single-engined fighters, 66% of twin-engined fighters, and 45% of bombers. This indicates the Germans were running out of aircrew as well as aircraft.”
The UK won the Battle of Britain in 1940 and that winter, Hitler rescinded his order to invade. That means, to me, that the UK would win eventually, with the allies she had in her empire.
By the time the USA became active across the Atlantic, the UK had largely defeated German forces in North Africa:
“The Second Battle of El Alamein (23 October–11 November 1942) was a battle of the Second World War that took place near the Egyptian railway halt of El Alamein. With the Allies victorious, it marked the watershed of the Western Desert Campaign.”
Once the security breach in British naval codes had been fixed and British anti-submarine aircraft began using radar effectively, the life of U-Boats became dramatically short, which helped win the Battle of the Atlantic:
“By spring 1943, the British had developed an effective sea-scanning radar small enough to be carried in patrol aircraft armed with airborne depth charges. Centimetric radar greatly improved interception and was undetectable by Metox. Fitted with it, RAF Coastal Command sank more U-Boats than any other Allied service in the last three years of the war.
“During 1943 U-boat losses amounted to 258 to all causes. Of this total, 90 were sunk and 51 damaged by Coastal Command.”
No matter how helpful was US participation, the Allies would have won. The British had the Enigma machine and the Colossus computer:
“The German submarine U-110, a Type IXB, was captured in 1941 by the Royal Navy, and its Enigma machine and documents were removed. U-559 was also captured by the British in October 1942; three sailors boarded her as she was sinking, and desperately threw all the code books out of the submarine so as to salvage them. Two of them, Able Seaman Colin Grazier and Lieutenant Francis Anthony Blair Fasson, continued to throw code books out of the ship as it went under water, and went down with it. Further code books were captured by raids on weather ships. U-744 was boarded by crew from the Canadian ship HMCS Chilliwack on 6 March 1944, and codes were taken from her, but by this time in the war, most of the information was known.”
Above: University of Birmingham - Poynting Physics Building - blue plaque to physicists Frisch and Peierls. “The Frisch–Peierls memorandum was the first technical exposition of a practical atomic weapon. Written by Otto Frisch and Rudolf Peierls in March 1940 while they were both working at the University of Birmingham in England, the memorandum contained new calculations about the size of the critical mass needed for an atomic bomb, and helped accelerate British and U.S. efforts towards bomb development during World War II.”
I would add to that how Hitler banned the nuclear research needed to make the A-Bomb, while the UK pressed ahead and brought in European scientists such as Niels Bohr:
“Tube Alloys was a codename of the clandestine research and development programme, authorised by the United Kingdom, with participation from Canada, to develop nuclear weapons during the Second World War. Starting before the Manhattan Project in the United States, the British efforts were kept classified and as such had to be referred to by code even within the highest circles of government.” 太吓人了，一句都看不懂:L .
开战之后，货币战侵袭重庆当局。日本玩套汇战术，先在沦陷区用伪币兑换法币，然后把法币拿到上海和香港向中资银行要求兑换等值外汇。
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兑还是不兑，重庆三派又开始吵架。
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马寅初再次跳出来装爱国，不给兑。
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顾翊群说，要兑。不可兑换纸币意味着市场信用缺失，没信用的政府，就没有民心，没有民心就会输掉战争。
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老马说，你是汉奸，又是口水横飞。
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最后决定不理社民派，要兑换，打一场市场金融抗战。
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日本在金融市场上抛多少法币，中资银行就用多少英镑收。一来二去，慢慢见了底。
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法币兑英镑比价，由1元兑14.5便士，一路跌到8.25便士，求救，像美英借2千万英镑做平准基金，美英孤立主义抬头，落井下石，借了区区5百万磅，要用矿山，桐油，乌砂，猪鬃作交换和抵押，还要支付高息。
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勉强撑到39年初，国库只剩下2500万美金，到了1元法币兑3.25便士的谷底，美英还不肯援手，山穷水尽之际，幸亏德国闪击欧洲，英镑应声而落，英镑贬值，法币暂时缓了口气，在1元比4便士上稳住阵脚。
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德国仍在中日之间游移，苏德亦还是同盟。
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所以到40年国民党五届七中全会上，亲德孔姐夫，亲苏孙太子串联题案，与亲日英国划清界限，参与元首大业。
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政学系说不要，看看再说，亏得再观察了一下，不然真上德国船，那等于帮日本解套，日本重获英美亲睐就会变成同盟国一员，那战后就是任西汪东两大俄日傀儡政权对峙的格局了。
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最终帮了重庆摆脱金融货币危机的其实是汪主席，汪主席毅然投日，激怒了罗瘸子。
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因为美日有默契，无论日本对华是战是和，都只能以重庆为唯一交涉对象。
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换而言之，无论战争结果如何，利益要均沾。
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可日本扶汪上台，汪和美国素无渊源，注定是一边倒体制，那战后美国利益无从保证。
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既然日本决定独占东亚，美国不能坐视，同年底罗瘸子就批了5千万美金援华，陆续还有多笔援助，这些都不重要，关键是美国承诺保证法币兑美元官方牌价，1美元兑20法币。
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等于说美国从此为法币护盘。
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自此，法币金融战告一段落，守得云开见月明。
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之后法币就是等胜利，顺便占美国便宜。
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