(转贴）美国的航运港口为何没有实现自动化？

天路客

有时候不仅仅是技术问题，经济、社会问题更加复杂难解，7年过去了，美国西海岸的港口效率又如何了？

Why Aren’t America’s Shipping Ports Automated?
美国的航运港口为何没有实现自动化？
作者：Flexport @ 2015-9-30
译者：Veidt（@Veidt)
校对：小聂（@PuppetMaster）
来源：Priceonomics，http://priceonomics.com/why-arent-americas-shipping-ports-automated/
The massive cranes that sit at the Port of Oakland are veritable money-printing machines.
那些坐落在加州奥克兰港的巨型起重机都称得上是名副其实的印钞机。

As ships coming from Asia dock in the San Francisco Bay, these industrial behemoths quickly usher goods-bearing containers off the deck and onto land. Modern container ships are filled with thousands of containers. At peak efficiency, a single crane can remove about 40 of these per hour — and for each one they unload, companies moving containerized cargo are charged a terminal handling fee of around $300.
随着来自亚洲的船只驶入旧金山湾，这些巨型工业设备迅速开始将装满货物的集装箱从货轮的甲板上卸到岸上。现代的集装箱货轮中装载着数以千计的集装箱。在最高工作效率之下，一台起重机每小时能从船上卸下大约40个集装箱——对于它卸下的每个集装箱，运送集装箱货物的公司需要向港口交纳大约300美元的码头作业费。

But in many ways, the Port of Oakland, and most American ports in general, are some of the most technologically antiquated in the world. While many high-wage, developed countries have embraced and integrated automation in the process of moving shipping containers, Oakland has shied away from more technologically advanced solutions.
但是在许多方面，奥克兰港以及美国的大多数港口实际上都排在世界上技术最陈旧的港口之列。当许多高工资的发达国家热情拥抱自动化技术，并将其整合到装卸货运集装箱的流程中时，奥克兰港却回避了那些技术上更先进的解决方案。

A port terminal recently opened in Rotterdam, in the Netherlands tells a different story: almost every part of the process of unloading containers is handled by software, and office workers remotely control the cranes over their computers. Some have called the operation the world’s most advanced container-ship terminal.
最近在荷兰鹿特丹开放的一个港口码头则讲述了一个完全不同的故事：在卸载集装箱的流程中，几乎所有的部分都是由计算机软件操作完成的，坐在办公室里的工人通过他们的电脑远程操纵起重机。有人称其为世界上最先进的集装箱船码头。

Comparing the ports of Oakland and Rotterdam shows just how far American ports are lagging when it comes to automation.
对奥克兰港和鹿特丹港的比较，清楚地显示出美国港口在自动化方面已经落下了多远的距离。

How Does a Container Port Work?
一个集装箱港口是如何运作的？
As many great articles and a highly-influential book have argued, containers are one of the great inventions of the modern world. In the shipping world, a “container” is defined as a standardized 20, 40 or 45 foot long steel receptacle that houses any variety of goods.
正如许多杰出文章和一部非常有影响力的著作【编注：指Marc Levinson的The Box，中译本《集装箱改变世界》】所认为的那样，集装箱属于现代世界的诸多伟大发明之一。在航运界，集装箱被定义为一个长20，40或45英尺的标准化钢制容器，它能够装载任何类型的货物。

These containers are a global ISO standard and work on essentially any ship, truck, or railcar that is fitted for them. This standardization, of course, alleviates concerns over how to pack a ship, what’s on it, whether the goods will be stolen at the dock, or whether it fit on a certain truck or train. Containers let you treat the physical atoms of the world almost like computerized bits.
这些集装箱都符合一个国际通用的ISO标准，并且能够与几乎所有针对它调整过的轮船，卡车或是有轨列车配合工作。这种标准化工作显然缓解了人们对于诸如该怎样装满一艘货船，船上都装了些什么，停放在港口的货物是否会被偷走，或者货物能否被装进一辆特定的卡车或列车这类问题的担忧。集装箱为你提供了一种像对待计算机中的比特位一样来对待真实世界中物理原子的方式。

The development of containers revolutionized trading among nations. Within 5 years of “containerization,” posits one estimate, trade among nations increased 320%; within 20 years, trade increased by 790%. In 1965, before containerization, a crew could move 1.7 tons of goods per hour. After containerization, a crew could move 30 tons per hour — a 17.6x increase in productivity.
集装箱的发展为国家间贸易带来了一场革命。根据一项估计，在集装箱化开始的5年内，世界各国间的贸易量增长了320%；在20年内，增长了790%。在集装箱化开始前的1965年，一名工人每小时能够搬运1.7吨货物。而在集装箱化之后，一名工人每小时则能够搬运30吨货物——这意味着生产率提高了17.6倍。

Typically, containers arrive via specialized ships at designated ports that have the particular equipment for unloading and loading the cargo as well as loading it onto trucks that can bring the goods to their destinations. The ports, and the level of efficiency with which they can process goods, have profoundly affected the global economy.
通常，集装箱会由特制的集装箱船运往那些拥有装卸货物的特定设备的指定港口，然后被装上集装箱卡车，将货物运送到目的地。而港口，以及它们处理货物的效率水平，对全球经济有着深刻的影响。

天路客

From the perspective of a ship coming into a port with containers and in the simplest terms, there a[re] three critical pieces of technology: the “gantry cranes” that lift the containers from the ships, the transport vehicles that move the containers strategically around each port’s container yard to a designated delivery location, and the stacking cranes that pile up the containers so that trucks can come take them away. For exporters, who move containers from truck to ship, this process operates in reverse.

从一艘装载着集装箱驶入港口的货轮的角度来看，通俗地说，有三项关键技术影响着效率：从货轮上吊起集装箱的龙门起重机，负责按照特定策略将集装箱运往港内集装箱堆场中指定位置的运输车，还有负责堆放集装箱以让运输卡车能够将集装箱运出港口的堆垛起重机。而对于货物的出口商而言，由于他们需要将集装箱从卡车转运到货轮上，整个流程的顺序则是相反的。


The machinery of these three components (gantry cranes, transport vehicles, and stacking cranes) can be operated either by humans or software. In Oakland, like most of the United States, all three are operated by humans. But the reality is that software automation can not only make this process faster and safer, but available at a lower variable cost.

这三部分的机械装置（龙门起重机，运输车和堆垛起重机）既可人工操作，也可以由软件来操作。在奥克兰港，与美国的大多数港口一样，全部三个部分都是人工操作的。但事实是，软件自动化不仅能让这些流程更加安全快速，而且可变成本也更低。

While the process of automation hasn’t yet started in the Port of Oakland, Rotterdam began implementing port automation back in the 1990s. After investing hundreds of millions of dollars, Rotterdam’s port boasts an operation in which all stacking cranes that pile up the containers and transport vehicles are run by software.

奥克兰港直到今天还没有开启港口自动化的进程，而鹿特丹港早在上世纪九十年代就已经开始实施港口的自动化运作了。在投入了数亿美元资金后，鹿特丹港骄傲地向人们展示了新的操作流程，在该流程中，所有负责堆放集装箱的堆垛起重机以及运输车辆都是由软件操控的。

This is a far cry from Oakland, where every transport vehicle has a driver and each stack crane has multiple operators working in pairs for a single shift as well as dockman and clerks to help coordinate and direct the operators and vehicle flow within the container yard.

而奥克兰港的情况则与此相去甚远，在奥克兰港，每辆运输车都有一名司机，而每台堆垛起重机在进行一次搬运时都需要多名操作员结对工作，此外还需要码头工人和一些记录员在集装箱堆场内帮助协调引导操作员和运输车流。

The most difficult part of the port to automate is the gantry crane, which plucks the container from the ship—partly due to the extreme potential danger involved. At most ports, before a container can be removed from a ship, a human must unlock the lower container lock; in a fully-automated system, there exists the omnipresent risk that a completely robotic gantry crane might not notice the human who unlocked the container.

在整个港口机械中最难自动化的部分是龙门起重机，它负责从货船上吊起集装箱——之所以难以自动化，其中的部分原因是这种操作中蕴含着极大的潜在危险。在大多数的港口，集装箱在能够被从货船上吊走之前，一名操作员必须人工解开集装箱下端的锁；而在一个全自动化的系统中则存在一种无处不在的风险，就是一个完全自动化的龙门起重机可能不会注意到负责人工将集装箱解锁的那名操作员。

However, many vessels have started to convert towards automatic locking and unlocking equipment that eliminates the need for a person to climb amongst the stacks of containers on a vessel and unlock containers before they are unloaded. In an automated system, humans would only need to interact with the equipment in this setting if there was a malfunction with the locking mechanism and bringing attention to a safety stoppage until the malfunction is addressed. Ultimately, this lends further support to the safety benefits to increased levels of automation.

然而，很多货船已经开始转向自动化的集装箱锁定和解锁设备，以消除对那些需要在船上成堆的集装箱中攀爬并在集装箱被卸载之前为其解锁的操作员的需求。在一个自动化的系统中，人们只需要在锁定机制发生故障时与这套设置中的设备进行交互，请求系统关注并启动安全停工机制，直到故障被排除。最终，这种机制通过带来更多的安全收益为更高水平的自动化赢得了更多的支持。

天路客

In Oakland, teams of humans operate on-site gantry cranes. In the newest terminal at Rotterdam, however, a single person who operates this crane sits in an office and controls the machine from his or her computer. A person is still operating the controls of the gantry crane, but that person now has software assisting him, making the job more comfortable, easier, and more productive.

在奥克兰港，龙门起重机是由一队队的工人操作的。而在鹿特丹港最新的码头，一台龙门起重机唯一的操作员坐在办公室里通过电脑来控制这台机器。龙门起重机仍然需要一个人来操控，但这名操作员现在有了软件的协助，这使得这项工作变得更轻松，更舒服，同时也更有效率。

At a build cost of over $535 million, the Rotterdam port is now considered the most advanced in the world, with all three major parts of the container moving process automated. In Rotterdam’s other terminals, almost every single transport vehicle and stacking crane are fully automated.

鹿特丹港新集装箱码头的建造成本超过了5.35亿美元，它被认为是目前世界上最先进的集装箱码头，流程中所有的三个主要部分全都已经自动化了。而在鹿特丹港的其它集装箱码头，几乎所有的运输车和堆垛起重机的运作也已经完全自动化了。

Contrasting Levels of Productivity
对比鲜明的生产率水平

It is difficult to make an apples to apples comparison of productivity between the two ports; due to the variables in the way in which they are structured, vessel size, vessel call schedules, shipping channel depth, gantry crane height and reach as well as limited public information for additional metrics. However, let’s take our best stab at figuring out just how much more efficient Rotterdam is than Oakland.

由于两个港口在建造方式，货轮大小，货轮调度时间表，航运通道的水深，龙门起重机的高度和范围以及其它一些难以从公开信息中获得的更多变量上存在的诸多不同，很难将奥克兰港和鹿特丹港的生产效率进行一一对应的同类比较。尽管如此，我们仍然可以尽量尝试着看看鹿特丹港究竟比奥克兰港要高效多少。

Rotterdam is the much larger port of the two, with 445 millions tons passing through it each year compared to just 47 million per year in Oakland. Much of this difference, however, is attributed to the fact that Rotterdam also accepts shipments of resources like oil that do not come in containers, whereas Oakland predominantly accepts containers.

鹿特丹港要比奥克兰港大得多，每年通过鹿特丹港运输的货物达到了4.45亿吨，相比之下，奥克兰港每年的货运量只有4700万吨。但这其中很大一部分差异要归因于鹿特丹港还接受诸如原油这类不使用集装箱来运输的资源，而奥克兰港则基本上只接受集装箱。

Instead of gauging volumes, let’s start by looking at how many containers pass through Rotterdam versus Oakland. The industry metric for number of containers is the “TEU”, or “twenty-foot equivalent unit”. In the 2014 shipping year, 12.3 million TEUs passed through Rotterdam, compared to 2.4 million in Oakland. Naturally, there are more berths for ships and cranes in Rotterdam, so that doesn’t necessarily mean Rotterdam is more productive (it could simply just be bigger).

先不看货运量，让我看看有多少集装箱分别通过鹿特丹港和奥克兰港进行运输。航运业内衡量集装箱数量的单位是TEU，也就是“二十英尺等量单位”。在2014航运年度，有1230万TEU的集装箱货运量通过鹿特丹港，而只有230万TEU的集装箱货运量通过奥克兰港。很自然地，因为鹿特丹港拥有更多的船舶泊位和起重机，这并不一定意味着鹿特丹港比奥克兰港的生产率更高（可能仅仅是因为鹿特丹港更大）。

Publicly available data tells us that there are 36 gantry cranes in Oakland versus 103 in Rotterdam (note: this is pre-automated terminal, which is only just getting started, but will add 26 more cranes). To get our best estimate of productivity, let’s take a look at how many TEUs are processed by each of those cranes in Rotterdam (where most of the process is automated), versus in Oakland:

可公开获得的数据告诉我们，奥克兰港拥有36台龙门起重机，而在鹿特丹港，这个数字是103（作者注：这个数字仅仅包括了还没有完全自动化的货运码头，而这仅仅是个开始，之后还将有26台起重机加入进来）。为了得到我们对于生产率的最优估计，让我们看看在鹿特丹港（那里大多数的流程都已经自动化了）和奥克兰港，一年内分别有多少TEU的集装箱货运量通过一台龙门起重机：




By this (admittedly rough) calculation, cranes in Rotterdam are almost 80% more productive than in Oakland.

根据这项计算（必须承认它很粗略），鹿特丹港的起重机的效率要比奥克兰港高出接近80%。

Why Does Automation Make Things Faster?
为什么自动化能提高效率？

It should go without saying that automation makes ports operate faster, but the exact reasons for this are less obvious.

自动化能够让港口运转得更快这个结论似乎是无需多言的，但其中实际的原因却并不是那么显而易见。

First, and perhaps most importantly, high levels of automation make it easier to have multiple shifts per day and better utilize expensive capital assets (cranes, trucks, berths, etc). In Oakland, it’s extremely expensive to run a second shift to quickly unload a ship because it is necessary to pay employees overtime wages in order to do so.

首先，或许也是最重要的一点是，高水平的自动化让每天处理多个班次变得更加容易，而这意味着对那些昂贵的资本资产（起重机，卡车，泊位等）更加有效的利用。在奥克兰港，想要加一个班次以尽快将一整船货物卸载完毕是一件非常昂贵的事情，因为这么做需要向雇员们支付加班工资。

In Rotterdam, it’s much more the normal course of business to operate two or three shifts per 24 hour period, especially for container yard deliveries. All terminals in the Port of Oakland still run 1st, 2nd and 3rd shift operations as needed based on volume, it is just at much higher cost to both capital and human assets.

而在鹿特丹港，在24小时的周期内进行两班或三班倒则更像是一种常态化的运作，尤其是对于像集装箱堆场内的运输这样的任务而言。奥克兰港所有的货运码头仍然根据货运量的具体需求来加班，甚至是三班倒，而这对于资本和人力资产而言都会带来高得多的成本。

Human-operated and software-operated cranes, can, in theory, move containers at the same rate. However, humans get tired and distracted, and don’t consistently operate at peak performance. Software, on the other hand, operates at the same rate no matter what. Technology can also make workers’ jobs easier and safer, reducing workplace stress which can increase productivity in its own right.

理论上说，人工操纵的起重机和软件操纵的起重机应该能够以相同的速率搬运集装箱。但是，人会变得疲劳，注意力也容易被分散，因此不能一直维持峰值表现。而软件则能够在任何情况下都以相同的效率进行操作。技术还能够让工人们的工作变得更加轻松和安全，从而减轻工作压力，而这本身也能够让生产率得到提升。

天路客

Why the Lack of Automation in Oakland?
为何奥克兰港缺乏自动化运作？

A key reason that Oakland and the United States lag in terms of automation is that upgrading to automated systems is extremely expensive: new, fully automated terminals cost over half a billion dollars to implement. Nevertheless, one expert estimates that automation makes financial sense when a port is handling around one million TEUs per year.

奥克兰港和美国其它港口在自动化方面落后的一个核心原因是，升级到自动化系统的费用非常高昂：建造一个新的完全自动化的货运码头需要花费超过5亿美元。然而，一位专家估计，如果一个港口每年能够运送大约100万TEU的集装箱货运量，那么自动化便有其财务价值。

Oakland, currently handles more than twice that amount in total TEU, however none of the terminals in the Port individually service over a million TEU in volume. There are several terminals that are close and in the very near future could hit that tipping point for the return on the investment in automation technologies.

虽然奥克兰港目前以TEU计算的总货运量超过了这个数字的两倍，然而其中并没有任何一个货运码头每年独立承担的货运量超过100万TEU。有几个码头的货运量接近这个数字，并且可能在不远的将来达到自动化技术投资回报的临界点。

A second reason for the delay in adopting modern automation is the effect on union jobs. Some have estimated that if the Port of Oakland were to implement a modern level of automation, 40-50% of the jobs would be eliminated.

第二个使美国港口迟迟没有采用现代自动化技术的原因则是自动化技术对工会职位所产生的影响。一些人已经作出估计，如果奥克兰港达到了现代的自动化水平，那么40%到50%的职位将会消失。

All ports on the West Coast of the United States are organized under a single union, the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU), which gives them a tremendously powerful collective bargaining position. A strike doesn’t just affect one port, but every single port on the West Coast.

美国西海岸的所有港口都被组织在同一家工会之下——国际码头和仓库工人工会（ILWU），这让他们处于一个强有力的集体谈判地位。一次罢工并不仅仅是影响一个港口，而是会影响到西海岸的每一个港口。

This union power was used to oppose the introduction of containers in the 1960s and, later, computerized systems for tracking cargo. In each case, however, the union eventually conceded the introduction of these technologies in exchange for higher wages for existing workers and buyouts for displaced ones.

这家工会的力量曾经在1960年代用来反对集装箱的引入，在之后还曾被用来反对引入用于跟踪货物的计算机系统。但每一次，工会最终都接受了这些技术的引入，以换取现有员工的更高工资以及那些被替代工人的买断费用。

As with previous disruptive technology ILWU will need to be compensated for any reduction in jobs. Today, the average member of the union in Oakland makes $147,000 per year in wages, with benefits equal to another $82,000 per year. Needless to say, providing buyouts to force retirement on these union workers, many of whom have dedicated their entire working lives to port operations, is not an appetizing prospect for the terminal operators.

和之前那些颠覆性技术一样，对于港口自动化技术，ILWU也将为任何因此被削减的职位要求补偿。目前，在奥克兰港工作的工会会员的平均工资是每年14.7万美元，此外他们还享受着每年等价于8.2万美元的福利。不用说，为这些工会工人的强制退休提供买断费用——他们中的很多人将自己的整个职业生涯都献给了港口工作——对于码头运营商们而言并不是一个看起来很有吸引力的选项。

Nevertheless, several mitigating factors may allow automation to proceed. For one, the job loss calculations largely assume that shipping volumes will not be affected by automation. However, as automation reduces the price of shipping, we should expect to more shipping, which will partially offset some of the job losses.

然而，一些正在缓和的因素可能会让自动化技术的引进变得可行。一方面，对于工作职位减少量的计算在很大程度上是假设货运量不会受到自动化技术的影响。但是自动化技术会降低航运的成本，我们可以预期这将带来更多的货运量，从而抵消一部分由它带来的职位削减。

More importantly, the returns on investment in port terminal automation are large enough that there should be room for a negotiated settlement that makes both the union and the terminal operators happy.

更重要的是，投资于港口货运码头的自动化技术所带来的回报足够大，这将为工会和港口运营商之间的谈判提供空间，以达成一个能让双方皆大欢喜的协议。

Port terminal automation is no different from any other form of technological disruption, which almost inevitably leads to displacement of some segments of the workforce. In the long run, however, technology ends up creating better jobs and expanded opportunities across broad spectrums of the economy. Managing the transition is hard, often requiring social safety nets from government, as well as concessions from those who stand to benefit from the new technology.

港口货运码头的自动化与其它任何形式的颠覆性技术相比并没有什么不同，它们几乎不可避免地会替代某些现有劳动力。但从长期来看，技术最终会在更广阔的经济民生中创造出更多更好的工作机会。管理由技术带来的转变是困难的，这通常需要政府的社会保障网络提供帮助，同时还需要那些新技术的受益者作出一些让步。

Given the march of “software eating the world,” it’s hard to imagine a future where American ports do not become more automated. Difficult as the transition toward port automation may be, shying away from the challenge means less trade among countries. Shipping technology advancements have shown themselves time and again to be capable of creating a more prosperous and interconnected world.

在“软件改变世界”的大潮之中，很难想象在未来美国的港口不会变得更加自动化。也许向港口自动化的转变过程会很艰难，但回避其中的挑战意味着国家间的贸易将因此减少。航运技术的进步已在过去一次次证明了它们有能力创造一个更加繁荣和更具连通性的世界。

（编辑：辉格@whigzhou）